Child Care Demand in Colorado

This analysis examines child care capacity vs infant and preschool-aged child population to determine current and future areas of sufficient and insufficient child care in Colorado.

Children per Licensed Child Care Facility

According to the Center for American Progress, a ratio of more than three children to one child care facility indicates a geography that provides insufficient child care opportunities. We found that year-to-date, 18.3 percent of children under age 3 are estimated to live in zip codes with insufficient child care capacity and 7.8 percent of children between ages 3 to 5 are estimated to live in zip codes with insufficient child care capacity.

Population Distribution: Ages 0-3

Population Distribution: Ages 3-5

Growth Rate Comparison

We found that for both infants and preschool-aged children, over 50 percent of evaluated Colorado zip codes exhibited child care facility capacity growth slower than the population growth for the relevant child population.

Child Care Availability vs Demand: Ages 0-3

Child Care Availability vs Demand: Ages 3-5

Methodology

We examined the ratio of children age 0-3 and age 3-5 to the cumulative child care capacity at the zip code level. The State of Colorado maintains a dataset of licensed child care facilities in Colorado. Our team utilized the most current dataset (May 2019), to calculate the total capacity in each zip code for licensed child care facilites. Additionally, our team examined capacity for different ages of young children, which was divided into two groups – one for toddlers and infants (0-3 years old) and one for preschool-aged children (3-5 years old). In order to calulate the total capacity for different ages of young children, we categorized the “Provider Service Type” from the dataset into the following categories: infant/toddler facility, preschool facility, family child care/day care/child care center, and school-age facility. Total capacity for toddler and infant children measures the sum of capacity among infant/toddler facilities and family child care/day care/child care center. Total capacity for preschool age children measures the sum of capacity among preschool facilities and family child care/day care/child care center. The Colorado State Demography Office (SDO) provides estimated and forecasted population by single year of age at the county level. The US Census Bureau (ACS) provides estimates for population under 5 years old at the zip code level for the 2012-2017 period. Because there is no public zip code level population data for the two age groups on our project scope, we adopted the assumption that the population growth rate in each zip code will mirror the county level rate. Using this assumption, we computed the 2019 forecasted population for children aged 0-3 and aged 3-5. To understand whether there is insufficient supply of the two types of licensed child care in different geographies, we compared the total capacity to its respective population.

We compared the annual facility capacity growth rate to the annual population growth rate. The dataset for licensed child care facilities dates back to June 2016. Considering that the ACS population data is a 5 year estimate, our team decided to compute an annual growth rate between 2017 and 2019 using compound annual growth rates. For capacity, data from the last months of 2017 and 2019 is used to calculate the annual growth since these months reflect the most current data for the year. For population, the annual growth rate in each zip code is assumed to match the growth rate in its county consistent with the methodology used to compute the forecasted population for 2019. Once both annual growth rates are calculated, we used the capacity growth rate and the populaton growth rate in order to determine whether the capacity or the population is more likely to grow faster in certain zip code areas and within the two age groups.

DATA SOURCES